Management Fun, And Games.

Neil Warnock
Neil Warnock has had 12 managerial jobs. Of those, six were taken after November, so his is the biggest sample size of this list. Burton Albion were kind enough to send me results for their seasons when he was there, but being 2 points for a win to start with, I haven't included them in the analysis, so I will be using the most recent 5; Notts Co, Torquay U, Oldham A, Sheffield U and QPR.

At all but one of the most recent five appointments, Warnock has made a positive change to results, averaging a Points Per Game increase of 0.38 on the teams' seasons before his arrival (with a high of 0.79 in 24 games at Notts County, and a low of -0.20 at Oldham over 15). Of those five only Oldham ended up getting relegated; which is a pretty decent hit rate for the man. What I would say about all these jobs is that Neil was brought in to improve failing teams - his highest PPG record was 1.83, and more normally it hovers around 1.43 in his initial fire-fighting spell. Is that what Town need?

Looking further on, Warnock led three of those teams to promotion at a later date - most notably QPR and Sheffield Utd to the Premiership, though neither spell ended happily in the top flight. As with his successful teams at Scarborough, Plymouth, Huddersfield, Warnock left them in a good position, but that was, eventually, regressed on. It wasn't something that happened at Burton, incidentally. His seasons there were a consistent success, if always ending slightly shy of promotion.

Neil Warnock is a CLIMBER. Good for getting up, but not always the best when reaching the top.

Simon Grayson
Simon Grayson recently left Leeds while they were just outside the playoffs in the Championship, in a sacking that rings similar feelings in to the Clark one. He has led two teams out of League One and both of those campaigns began mid-season for him - albeit 16 games in at Blackpool and 21 games in at Leeds. Both of his spells saw a Points Per Game increase - indeed, when going to Leeds, he led them from 1.52 points per game to finish with 1.83; a similar increase at Town would be very welcome indeed.

There is limited evidence here, but knowing that he led BOTH those teams to promotion eventually has to count in his favour - although he did lose a playoff campaign against Millwall whilst with Leeds, but then anyone can do that. The 2.08 points per game ratio he had during his first season at Elland Road is pretty much what would be needed at Leeds Road, so if we discount his history of managing a rival, there's no doubt he has the ability to do the job.

Simon Grayson is a BUILDER. Able to put the blocks in place to allow people to progress higher and higher.

Nicky Butt

Nicky Butt is an unknown quantity. He is a Lemming that has not yet been attributed a role.

Mark Robins

In his one managerial spell trying to improve a failing side, Mark Robins took over the reins for 12 games at Rotherham. His 1.08 PPG ratio was only slightly higher than the team achieved over the rest of the season, but I'm sure he can point towards the financial problems (Rotherham were administration at the time) as part of his argument. Since his time at Rotherham, he has had a successful spell at Barnsley as well; but the only evidence we have of him trying to improve a team suggests he might be a better appointment for a summer rather than a Spring - Neil Warnock's first spell wasn't an immediate success, mind, so it might be worth a look-in.

Mark Robins is a FLOATER. He has not done much climbing yet, just overseen, and lightened two gradual descents.

Phil Brown

Phil Brown is, at the moment, trading on a marvellous spell wherein he took Hull into the Premier League. He has had two spells starting mid-season; one at Hull, one at Preston. Neither one was particularly successful; the next seasons of course, were very very different. He averages a 0.15 PPG increase over the two, and the 1.10 PPG over the two spells suggests he isn't a miracle-worker at short notice.

I would stay away from Phil Brown on the basis that he has struggled with League One with Preston, and his managerial skills were called into question at Hull, particularly during the second half of their Premiership spell in a way that he never really managed to answer. It is easy to manage a team on the way up, but it is difficult to maintain when tough times come around.

Phil Brown is a MINER. His stock is falling gradually and, despite early highs, uncertainty surrounds him.

Mick McCarthy

We know all about Mick McCarthy; Professional Yorkshireman, former manager of Wolves and, when you see old photos of him with a moustache, you feel wrong. All I need to say about this idea is Sunderland. In 9 games with a relegation-bound Sunderland team, McCarthy garnered only 2 goals and zero points.

Mick can be a decent manager, and I think he'd do a very good job at Leeds, to be honest. I don't see him as someone who can come in and lead a side to triumph; its more of a gradual thing. Both of his short-season spells have ended up with teams doing exactly what they were doing before, Millwall increasing by 0.05 PPG and Sunderland, obviously, free-falling out of the Premiership.

Mick McCarthy is a BOMBER. He can get rid of obstacles that are in your way, but you might need to wait a wee while before you see a result.

Mark McGhee

I would class Mark McGhee as an unlikely candidate having just taken over at Bristol Rovers, but he appears in the betting, so here is his summary.

Both his short-season spells so far were successful - picking up each team by around 0.30 PPG over around 25 games; the problem is that they were an appalling Leicester team, who had won once in 15 before his arrival, and a distinctly average Wolves team, who were plodding along at 1.05 PPG when he turned up. That's not to say that either spell was a failure, just that he made a slight improvement to teams that weren't really doing a lot in the first place, and didn't end up much differently during that first season with them.

In some ways, that's not unlike the situation he finds himself in now, Bristol Rovers at 1.04 PPG after 26 games; but his impetus there (3 wins, 1 loss) looks to be building momentum in a division where late-comers can still crash the promotion party.

Mark McGhee is a BLOCKER. He can ably stop the flow, but doesn't seem to get much improvement.

So, which Lemming do we want managing Huddersfield Town? When I started this article, I thought we wanted the Climber (Warnock) but looking at what I've done (I include my spreadsheet here) I would say I think I favour the Builder, Simon Grayson, of the first seven candidates listed in the betting. The eighth is Mark Lillis, by the way, which is why i didn't cover him. Having done all this, I fully expect Dean Hoyle to surprise us completely like he does with transfers.

We shall see.

Oh, and thanks again to Burton Albion, who were more helpful than I could ever have asked this very morning and have supplied me some very interesting reading for the afternoon (about their club's time under Neil Warnock)

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