Huddersfield Town go into Saturday's playoff final hoping to end an eight year spell in the third tier (the third longest active spell - Oldham 15, Tranmere R 11) against a Sheffield United side who hope their visit lasts only one season. Meanwhile Charlton (3) and Sheffield Wednesday (2) have both already left the division upwards, and Chesterfield (1), Wycombe W (1), Rochdale (2) and Exeter C (3) have dropped down a flight.
There is, in short, a lot of opportunity for teams to change division nowadays. The addition of the playoffs has brought promotion possibility to all, and football benefits as a result. I want to see how much, and how far, things have changed. There has always been teams going up and down the divisions, and always been teams treading water. Is it getting better or worse? I would say, before the figures are calculated, undoubtedly the divisions are more unstable. Going up, or going down, is rarely a long-term memory for fans, and if so, I think that's probably a good thing.
As a curio that cropped up during something else I'm working on, I thought Town fans might care for this table; its, basically, a list of when Town last played each of the 108 teams they've met in the league away from home.
I'm easily annoyed, as you'll know if you've ever sat next to me during a football match - particularly one that is televised. Indeed, most of the ideas I get for posts are as a direct reaction to me thinking 'No - that's just wrong' to things that I hear or read and this is no different.
We are at the moment in playoff season - and the Football League have kindly spread the games out so there's a game a day; culminating in James Spencer's Cheltenham's visit to Torquay this evening. Something that has been annoying me a lot lately is certain teams claiming they have a 'poor record in the playoffs'.
Watching yesterday's pantomime finish to the Premiership season led my mind to wander to other tight finishes we've seen in the league in our time. I've already documented the Cardiff City battle in 1924/25 (which I would maintain remains the most exciting last day in history, but then I would say that) so I thought I'd update that with a few last days that I can remember the drama of. I ought to point out here, I was also inspired by the beyond excellent OnGoalsScored, which I can only recommend - there's some stunning stuff on there, even about Town. You'll can even see a graphical representation of last season's Survival Sunday - something I will use as a base for a couple of graphs here.
Looking back through the season's end-points lead me to the inescapable conclusion that they are often built-up in the press beyond the level they need to be. Think of the end of the Championship this season - there was never any doubt that Southampton would be promoted, but West Ham found themselves at the centre of a media whirlwind which was then used as an excuse for not tipping them in the playoffs. There is a flip side of this. The last game of the season is the one that completes the set, and it isn't the last game that promotes or relegates, its just the last chance to ensure the set ends the way you want it to. That's something I want to look at, too - a 'what went wrong/right' for the season.
The league tables in the first post were something interesting, and I thought it was worthwhile posting them on here, but it was the information that they give that was the reason I worked it all out.
Town travel to MK Dons tomorrow, as I'm sure you're aware. I wanted to see if there was any defining trends that the teams had in how their matches pan out. It seems obvious that - particularly in away games - Town tend to lead but then sit back and get caught out and end up level; I would say that trend has been seen less lately, but mainly because without goals - and they have become more difficult to find, the team can't lead.
Now we've finished our forty-six matches, we've got a full data set from League One in 2011/12 to play with, which is exciting stuff (for me, anyway). As such, I can begin to draw some conclusions about what we've seen and what we haven't seen. Of course, its nice to be able to draw a few conclusions about things that might come to pass in the end of season spectacular known as the playoffs.
To that end, I've taken inspiration from
So, here we are again. It's the four team shootout to see who can bring the best of themselves to the table for three cup finals in a row. It's the League One playoffs. I refute the term 'lottery', because it isn't anything like a lottery. The team that goes up isn't just lucky, they're good. Good enough to be in the top six teams in the division (five in 1994/5, and various numbers before the 90s in the wilds of the 1980s playoffs) but flawed enough not to be in the top two. All four teams can win games, but all have lost games, too. That's why they're there and not popping the champagne already. Winning isn't a lottery, it's the teams that can raise themselves over a fortnight and make the most of their situation.
The thing with winning the playoffs is that most teams don't do it. Every year there's a 75% failure rate. As such we've got exactly 75 examples of how not to win the playoffs, and only 25 examples of how to do so. I can only really look at League One playoffs for this, because the pressures of the other two divisions' playoffs are very different; the teams, though trying to do the same thing, are doing it differently. I'd rather watch the League Two ones, I think, of the three.
Peter Clarke, Antony Kay, Jamie McCombe, Sean Morrison. Four names that have filled the two positions for more than 90% of the appearances Huddersfield centre-backs have made this 2011/12 season. I'm sure, if you've seen more than one combination play, you'll have a favourite pairing. I certainly do, and putting my cards on the table early it would be Morrison and McCombe; I think McCombe came back from his spell at Preston far more confident in himself, and with Sean Morrison next to him, there's a level of solidity that I find appealing.
I want to have a look at how effective each pairing has been, however, and how see if I can come to a conclusion as to which two defenders should be pulling on the stripes in the playoffs that are now confirmed to be coming up. Back to the numbers, then, and familiar ground.
As League One meanders to a close, I'm drawn to review it. Expect posts with all sorts of numbers and conclusions at some point after the end of the playoffs - hopefully detailing reasons to be optimistic in the Championship next season. Until, then, though, I'll leave my spreadsheets updating but the ideas gathering a bit of dust and do things another way.
I was washing up the other day, and blurted out the chorus to Finest Worksong by R.E.M. It can happen from time to time, but I hadn't heard it for a while, so I popped it on my playlist for this morning. Of course, later on in Document, one finds It's the End of the World As We Know It (And I Feel Fine). It isn't - as you're no doubt aware - the end of the world. It is the end of the league, though. So here is my take-off of that song, hopefully describing Town's season 2011/12 and equally hopefully scanning as well for you as it does for me. Enjoy.
Disclaimer: don't read this post for serious analysis of Huddersfield Town's season to date.
I've been writing here now for the best part of a season and contributing to a few other sites from time to time, and have recently been re-arranging my draft copies of articles - I was tickled by a couple of things I'd written about Jordan Rhodes in the last couple, and the flowery text with which I had described him. As I read through my drafts - because these are the bits I generally excise and replace, I noticed a few more unpublished 'highlights'. It does creep into my statistical posts from time to time, but you'll more often see it in the match reports - me having a bit of fun with generally disappointing third division football matches. Here's my favourite few from the season - don't take any of them too seriously, I know I didn't.






RECENT COMMENTS
"Cheltenham leapt up to fourth last night - and remain unbeaten in playoffs. They face Crewe next wee..."
"Great blog, for all the stats, its in our hands now, I think we are better suited as underdogs, alth..."
"I didn't leave the graph that size to keep Sheffield Wednesday as a surprise - click on it to see it..."
"I hope your fascinating and really well-researched piece doesn't draw any further attention to Andy!..."
"And, as if to prove my point of things going wrong, I put the wrong name (started my comment in the ..."
"Omar, I think Rhodes' problem is the same one as Huddersfield's in general. So many of his goals are..."
"Not a big Football League follower but this is fantastic, gives Rhodes' goals a lot of context. I'm ..."
"Very interesting article as ever, I don't think I'd have the patience to work out all the stats and ..."
"Great entertaining writing, keep up the good work..."
"Well done Huddersfield, you have signed a good manager. He did a good job at Leeds and left them in ..."